IP Axis of Evil: Keep an eye on Brazil

Peter Zura has a great post on his Two-Seventy-One Patent Blog regarding the so-called “IP Axis of Evil,” which includes China, India, and Brazil.  After reading his post, I tried to parse out the axis.  I came to the conclusion that the axis countries fall into three distinct categories.  Then I started thinking about the future for the axis countries on intellectual property issues.  Based on recent activity, I think the axis could be boiled down to a single country in a matter of years (10?, 20?).  Of course, new countries could replace those voted off the island.

Here’s my parsing:

India has made real strides on the patent front by making substantive changes to bring its patent laws into full TRIPs compliance (see this prior PTP post).  This happened at a very interesting time as the pharmaceutical industry in India is currently shifting from a copying-based industry to a research and development-based industry.  Over time, this should increase the need for strong intellectual property.  Once India has a home-grown reason for being serious about intellectual property, real reforms (read enforcement) should follow.

China is a few steps behind.  Over the last several years, it has revved-up the propaganda machine to give the appearance of reform.  Interestingly, China seems to be undergoing a similar industrial change as that occurring in India.  For example, the number of international patent applications coming from China is on a sharp increase, suggesting that Chinese inventors and companies are getting more serious about their own intellectual property.  Again, a home-grown reason for being serious about intellectual property should lead to real and meaningful reform.

What’s up with Brazil, then?  It has taken a series of actions recently to place itself in the international patent law hotseat.  The country seems focused on throwing a wrench into international patent law harmonization efforts.

So when I look at the so-called axis of evil, I feel that I have a sense for the direction in which India and China are moving.  As for Brazil, I haven’t a clue.

Keep your eye on Brazil.